The ICC World Test Championship (WTC 2025) Final between South Africa and Australia at Lord’s is shaping up as a classic contest between two formidable Test sides. Both teams have earned their spots with strong performances across the 2023-25 cycle, but the prevailing sentiment among analysts and historical data points to Australia as the favourites to win the title.
SA vs AUS Head-to-Head and Recent Form
Historically, Australia holds a significant advantage over South Africa in Test cricket, boasting a win percentage above 50% from 104 matches between the sides1. The Australians have a wealth of experience playing at Lord’s, with key players like Steve Smith, Usman Khawaja, Pat Cummins, and Mitchell Starc having featured in multiple Ashes series on English soil. Since 1980, Australia has played 12 Ashes matches at Lord’s, winning 7, drawing 3, and losing only 2, which highlights their comfort and success at this iconic venue.
South Africa, meanwhile, finished the WTC league phase as table toppers with a win percentage of 69.44 from 12 games, slightly ahead of Australia’s 67.54. The Proteas have been dominant recently, entering the final on a seven-Test winning streak, including series victories against West Indies, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. However, critics note that South Africa’s route to the final was aided by an arguably less challenging schedule, as they did not face Australia or England during the cycle and played mostly two-Test series.
Team Strengths and Strategies
Australia comes into the final as defending champions, having defeated India in the 2023 WTC Final. Their squad is packed with experience and proven performers, particularly in English conditions. The pace trio of Starc, Cummins, and Hazlewood is expected to thrive on the Lord’s pitch, which traditionally favours fast bowlers, especially early in the match. Their batting lineup, featuring Smith, Khawaja, and Labuschagne, is also well-versed in handling the Dukes ball and the unique challenges of English pitches.
South Africa, under Temba Bavuma’s leadership, has made strategic changes to strengthen their batting depth, such as moving Bavuma to number five and including in-form players like Tony De Zorzi. Their fast bowling unit has been exceptional, and the team’s recent resurgence in Test cricket has been widely praised. However, many of their players are more recognized for their limited-overs achievements, and the team lacks the collective experience of playing high-stakes Tests in England.
Venue and Conditions
Lord’s is a venue that rewards both seamers and, as the match progresses, batters who can adapt to changing conditions. The weather forecast suggests a 45% chance of precipitation during the final, which could influence the match by favouring the bowlers early on. Australia’s familiarity with the ground and the conditions gives them an additional edge.
Expert Predictions
Most cricket analysts and prediction platforms favour Australia to win the 2025 WTC Final. Their superior head-to-head record, experience at Lord’s, and depth in both batting and bowling make them the likely winners. While South Africa has shown remarkable grit and topped the WTC table, their path to the final was arguably less rigorous, and their squad, though talented, lacks the same level of Test pedigree in English condition.
Also Read: Temba Bavuma vs Steve Smith in the WTC25 Cycle
However, cricket remains unpredictable, and as South African batter Aiden Markram noted, it will ultimately come down to which team executes their skills better over the five days. The Proteas are hungry to break their ICC trophy drought, and their recent form cannot be discounted entirely.
Conclusion
While South Africa’s rise to the final is a testament to their resilience and improvement, Australia’s experience, historical dominance, and squad strength make them the favourites to win the 2025 World Test Championship Final at Lord’s. Yet, as with any one-off Test, a single inspired performance or a twist in conditions could still produce a surprise.
